Bitcoin Weeklyビットコイン週報
No change.
Nothing to do this week.
One call at the top. The evidence under it. The judgement at the end.
Value is 32.7 and nothing is flashing danger — the band where deployment has been rewarded.
Scheduled contributions continue either way — that never changes. This is about a lump you already have.
Where value has been — 12 months価値の軌跡
Each day ranked against its own history; the current value percentile is 32.7. It peaked at 71.6 on 2025-10-06 and bottomed at 14.7 on 2026-06-29. Weekly points.
The model context模型
Descriptions of price, not targets.
The power law
expanding log-log fit · refit through 2026-09-01
−43.5%
Bitcoin at $77,891 is 43.5% below the long-run power-law line at $137,843. The line is an imaginary description of where price has been, not a target or a forecast. Its coefficients move as observations arrive.
1320 of 4262 modern-era days were cheaper relative to the line — the 31.0 percentile. This is cheap, but it is not historically extreme.
| cycle trough | vs line |
|---|---|
| 2015-01-14 | −76.3% |
| 2018-12-15 | −51.0% |
| 2020-03-12 | −58.3% |
| 2022-11-21 | −63.9% |
| 2026-06-30 | −56.0% |
| cycle peak | vs line |
|---|---|
| 2013-12-04 | +766.6% |
| 2017-12-16 | +566.1% |
| 2019-06-26 | +57.0% |
| 2021-11-08 | +134.2% |
| 2025-10-06 | +13.6% |
Every trough shown went deeper than today, while peak overshoots have contracted sharply. The history is the hedge against reading “43.5% below” as a promise.
The valuation ladder
spot $77,891 · rank 3 · 5 of 8 rungs above spot
| rung | value | spot vs |
|---|---|---|
| cointime priceharvested · derive to 1.41% | $52,737 | +47.7% |
| realised priceharvested · derive to 0.17% | $53,035 | +46.9% |
| true market meanharvested · derive to 0.25% | $76,309 | +2.1% |
| power lawours | $137,843 | −43.5% |
| vaulted priceharvested · derive to 0.98% | $145,013 | −46.3% |
| MVRV +1.0sdharvested · cannot verify | $152,572 | −48.9% |
| MVRV +1.5sdharvested · cannot verify | $178,771 | −56.4% |
| MVRV +2.0sdharvested · cannot verify | $204,970 | −62.0% |
Five of eight rungs are independently derivable: four harvested base-price models can be rebuilt to the stated tolerances, and the power law is ours. The three MVRV bands are copied from an external chart and cannot be independently verified. A ladder is context; no rung, including the upper bands, is a price objective.
Anything unusual?異常
- long-term holders are realising losses on average (SOPR 0.946)
Do anything?行動
- No boundary crossed this week.
An item appears here only when a level crosses a boundary, the engine changes state, the sell guard lights, or an input goes stale. Steady readings produce no items on purpose — a report that always finds something will eventually invent something.
The Panel計器盤
Three indicators, three different jobs.
MVRV
the picture, and the buy side
1.481
37.8 percentile ▼ 0.2
Cost basis of the average coin. Below 1.0 the average holder is underwater. This is the buy-side number; do not average it with anything.
Puell multiple
the danger side
1.007
43.9 percentile ▲ 4.7
Miner revenue against its own trend. The panel's danger marker is meaningful only when it reaches the upper band and the other instruments agree.
price ÷ 200-week avg
the confluence check
1.217
22.4 percentile ▼ 0.4
Price against its 200-week average. Third leg of the guard; only meaningful when it agrees with the other two.
Sell guard — CLEAR · 0 / 3
Nothing in its top fifth. The danger confluence is not lit. It lights only when all three panel members sit in their top fifth at once. That is a reason to stop adding and check sizing — never a sell trigger.
If you were deploying capital today資本
The distribution you are stepping into
days since 2018 with MVRV in the 28–48 percentile band · n=635
Historical distribution conditional on today's reading. Not a forecast. It says what this zone has looked like, not what happens next.
The rule that survived the tests. Keep buying on schedule regardless of this number, including when the panel is not cheap.
Use the panel to size a lump you already have — faster below 40, slower above 60 — and never to decide whether a scheduled contribution goes in.
Who is under stress売り手
What the week rules out.
| cohort | level | percentile |
|---|---|---|
| long-term holders | 0.946 | 26.1 |
| short-term holders | 1.005 | 71.1 |
| supply in profit | 0.657 | 41.9 |
SOPR below 1.0 means that cohort is realising losses on average. This is the one thing price cannot tell you: who is doing the selling. Use it to kill stories — if someone claims long-term holders are capitulating, this either shows it or it does not.
Week, month, quarter, year四つの地平
| span | BTC | value then | Δ value | Δ MVRV | Δ Puell |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| weeksince 2026-08-25 | −0.8% | 32.9 | −0.2 | −0.2 | +4.7 |
| monthsince 2026-08-02 | +22.7% | 16.7 | +16.0 | +17.9 | +20.9 |
| quartersince 2026-06-02 | +16.8% | 19.5 | +13.2 | +16.5 | +36.2 |
| YTDsince 2026-01-01 | −12.2% | 40.9 | −8.2 | −2.0 | +9.8 |
One week is noise. The same direction across four horizons is the difference between drifting and moving. Δ columns are percentile points.
Where we are in the cycle周期
This drawdown so far
Day 330 since the all-time high.
Completed cycles, for scale
peak to trough · the analogue set, all four of it
| cycle | duration | depth |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-06 → 2011-11 | 162d | −93% |
| 2013-12 → 2015-01 | 406d | −85% |
| 2017-12 → 2018-12 | 364d | −84% |
| 2021-11 → 2022-11 | 378d | −77% |
The Analyst Note所見
No change is the finding
Bitcoin is at $77,891, down 0.8% on the week. Value moved only 0.2 points, from 32.9 to 32.7. The regime engine remains in RECOVERY, and the sell guard remains CLEAR at 0 / 3. No boundary crossed. The empty action box is therefore the decision: BUY remains the sizing posture for free capital, but this week supplied no reason to accelerate, pause, or reverse it.
The surface was quiet; the panel was not uniform
MVRV slipped to 37.8 and price against its 200-week average slipped to 22.4, both still cheap. Puell moved the other way, up 4.7 points to 43.9. That takes the miner-revenue measure into the middle band while the other two instruments remain below the 40 line. It changes the composition of the value reading, not the call: one danger-side measure is rising, but there is no danger confluence.
The more useful change happened away from the headline price. Fear and Greed is 75, but its price-implied residual has compressed from +14 to +3 points in seven days and now sits at +0.30 standard deviations. Last week sentiment ran ahead of the rebound; this week that excess faded without requiring a new tactical decision. That is modest evidence for consolidation, not proof of durable demand.
The unresolved question is persistence, not price this week
Long-term holders are still realising losses at 0.946, the 26.1 percentile, while short-term holders sit at 1.005 and the 71.1 percentile. The 45-point gap says the two cohorts are living in different markets. At the same time, the capitulation panel remains 0 of 8, and the clock records 0 accumulation days and 0 capitulation days. RECOVERY has persisted for a quiet week; the bottoming sequence in the completed-cycle sample still has not appeared.
Two branches, with invalidators named now
Branch A — RECOVERY is consolidating. The engine held its state, the guard stayed clear, and the sentiment residual fell back toward price while the week itself was nearly flat. A return to BEAR_DECLINE or a break below the 2026-06-30 low invalidates this branch.
Branch B — RECOVERY skipped a bottoming phase it will still have to revisit. No capitulation breadth, no accumulation clock, and continuing long-term-holder losses are the evidence. This branch is invalidated if RECOVERY persists while long-term-holder SOPR rises back above 1.0 without the sell guard lighting.
I give Branch A a slight edge because sentiment excess unwound while RECOVERY held. The evidence is only one quiet week, so conviction should remain small. The honest response is the headline: no change, and nothing new to do.
Standing caveat. The completed-cycle sample contains four observations. Historical distributions are context, not forecasts. Nothing here is a reason to change a scheduled contribution.
Read this before trusting any number above. Every input is checked for staleness before it is rendered, using the regime engine's own dropout cutoff. All inputs fresh this week.
The engine's label is RECOVERY, sourced fired — a rule fired and retained the previous state. Its edge is at naming the present, not predicting it. Treat everything here as context for sizing and for killing stories, not as timing. Generated against the regime engine · value percentile is expanding-window, no look-ahead. The full method, every refuted strategy, and the evidence for this panel are in the engine atlas.