Bitcoin Weeklyビットコイン週報
No change.
Nothing to do this week.
One call at the top. The evidence under it. The judgement at the end.
Value is 33.0 and nothing is flashing danger — the band where deployment has been rewarded.
Scheduled contributions continue either way — that never changes. This is about a lump you already have.
Where value has been — 12 months価値の軌跡
Each day ranked against its own history; the current value percentile is 33.0. It peaked at 71.6 on 2025-10-06 and bottomed at 14.7 on 2026-06-29. Weekly points.
The model context模型
Descriptions of price, not targets.
The power law
expanding log-log fit · refit through 2026-09-08
−43.1%
Bitcoin at $78,840 is 43.1% below the long-run power-law line at $138,451. The line is an imaginary description of where price has been, not a target or a forecast. Its coefficients move as observations arrive.
1357 of 4269 modern-era days were cheaper relative to the line — the 31.8 percentile. This is cheap, but it is not historically extreme.
| cycle trough | vs line |
|---|---|
| 2015-01-14 | −76.3% |
| 2018-12-15 | −51.0% |
| 2020-03-12 | −58.3% |
| 2022-11-21 | −63.9% |
| 2026-06-30 | −56.0% |
| cycle peak | vs line |
|---|---|
| 2013-12-04 | +766.6% |
| 2017-12-16 | +566.1% |
| 2019-06-26 | +57.0% |
| 2021-11-08 | +134.2% |
| 2025-10-06 | +13.6% |
Every trough shown went deeper than today, while peak overshoots have contracted sharply. The history is the hedge against reading “43.1% below” as a promise.
The valuation ladder
spot $78,840 · rank 3 · 5 of 8 rungs above spot
| rung | value | spot vs |
|---|---|---|
| cointime priceharvested · derive to 1.41% | $52,781 | +49.4% |
| realised priceharvested · derive to 0.17% | $53,150 | +48.3% |
| true market meanharvested · derive to 0.25% | $76,501 | +3.1% |
| power lawours | $138,451 | −43.1% |
| vaulted priceharvested · derive to 0.98% | $145,238 | −45.7% |
| MVRV +1.0sdharvested · cannot verify | $152,853 | −48.4% |
| MVRV +1.5sdharvested · cannot verify | $179,097 | −56.0% |
| MVRV +2.0sdharvested · cannot verify | $205,340 | −61.6% |
Five of eight rungs are independently derivable: four harvested base-price models can be rebuilt to the stated tolerances, and the power law is ours. The three MVRV bands are copied from an external chart and cannot be independently verified. A ladder is context; no rung, including the upper bands, is a price objective.
Anything unusual?異常
- short-term holders are realising losses on average (SOPR 0.999)
Do anything?行動
- No boundary crossed this week.
An item appears here only when a level crosses a boundary, the engine changes state, the sell guard lights, or an input goes stale. Steady readings produce no items on purpose — a report that always finds something will eventually invent something.
The Panel計器盤
Three indicators, three different jobs.
MVRV
the picture, and the buy side
1.487
38.2 percentile ▲ 1.5
Cost basis of the average coin. Below 1.0 the average holder is underwater. This is the buy-side number; do not average it with anything.
Puell multiple
the danger side
0.934
39.0 percentile ▲ 0.5
Miner revenue against its own trend. The panel's danger marker is meaningful only when it reaches the upper band and the other instruments agree.
price ÷ 200-week avg
the confluence check
1.219
22.5 percentile ▲ 1.3
Price against its 200-week average. Third leg of the guard; only meaningful when it agrees with the other two.
Sell guard — CLEAR · 0 / 3
Nothing in its top fifth. The danger confluence is not lit. It lights only when all three panel members sit in their top fifth at once. That is a reason to stop adding and check sizing — never a sell trigger.
If you were deploying capital today資本
The distribution you are stepping into
days since 2018 with MVRV in the 28–48 percentile band · n=621
Historical distribution conditional on today's reading. Not a forecast. It says what this zone has looked like, not what happens next.
The rule that survived the tests. Keep buying on schedule regardless of this number, including when the panel is not cheap.
Use the panel to size a lump you already have — faster below 40, slower above 60 — and never to decide whether a scheduled contribution goes in.
Who is under stress売り手
What the week rules out.
| cohort | level | percentile |
|---|---|---|
| long-term holders | 1.097 | 32.8 |
| short-term holders | 0.999 | 37.5 |
| supply in profit | 0.658 | 42.1 |
SOPR below 1.0 means that cohort is realising losses on average. This is the one thing price cannot tell you: who is doing the selling. Use it to kill stories — if someone claims long-term holders are capitulating, this either shows it or it does not.
Week, month, quarter, year四つの地平
| span | BTC | value then | Δ value | Δ MVRV | Δ Puell |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| weeksince 2026-09-01 | +1.9% | 31.6 | +1.4 | +1.5 | +0.5 |
| monthsince 2026-08-09 | +21.6% | 18.1 | +14.9 | +16.7 | +14.2 |
| quartersince 2026-06-09 | +27.8% | 15.8 | +17.2 | +19.8 | +28.9 |
| YTDsince 2026-01-01 | −11.1% | 40.9 | −7.9 | −1.6 | +4.9 |
One week is noise. The same direction across four horizons is the difference between drifting and moving. Δ columns are percentile points.
Where we are in the cycle周期
This drawdown so far
Day 337 since the all-time high.
Completed cycles, for scale
peak to trough · the analogue set, all four of it
| cycle | duration | depth |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-06 → 2011-11 | 162d | −93% |
| 2013-12 → 2015-01 | 406d | −85% |
| 2017-12 → 2018-12 | 364d | −84% |
| 2021-11 → 2022-11 | 378d | −77% |
The Analyst Note所見
No change. Nothing to do this week.
Bitcoin is at $78,840, up 1.9% on the week, while value rose 1.4 points from 31.6 to 33.0. The three panel readings also rose, but all remain cheap. The regime engine held RECOVERY without a rule firing and the sell guard stayed CLEAR at 0 / 3. The BUY sizing posture survives; none of those movements crossed a boundary, so none creates a new instruction.
This rebound is ordinary in the useful sense
The quarter's biggest day was +7.3%, a 92.3 percentile move, but only 4 days moved 5%+. That is a 4.4% quarterly rate against a 14.6% all-history base rate. Funding sits at the 62.3 percentile. The move has therefore come with quieter-than-usual volatility and unstretched funding. Those readings add no separate danger signal to the clear sell guard.
Fear and Greed is 73, with a price-implied reading of 68. The residual is only +4.7 points, or +0.42 standard deviations. That index is not independent confirmation of optimism; today it mostly restates the price move. Orderly is a description of the path so far, not evidence that the path must continue.
Five models above spot are not five votes
The ladder puts spot at rank 3, with 5 of 8 rungs above it. That count is tempting and analytically weak. Spot is just 3.1% above true market mean while sitting 43.1% below the power-law line; those models describe different histories, not a committee agreeing on a target. Five rungs are independently derivable, while the three upper MVRV bands cannot be verified independently. The BUY call comes from the value panel and the clear guard, not from counting how many model lines happen to be higher.
Two branches, with the quiet interpreted differently
Branch A — this is an orderly revaluation. RECOVERY is holding, the funding and volatility readings are unstretched, and sentiment adds little beyond price. A return to BEAR_DECLINE or a lit sell guard invalidates this branch.
Branch B — quiet masks an unfinished low. The capitulation panel is still 0 of 8, the clock records 0 accumulation days and 0 capitulation days, and short-term holders are realising losses at 0.999. Continued RECOVERY through a value reading above 40, with short-term-holder SOPR back above 1.0 and the guard still clear, invalidates this branch.
The first branch explains the current tape better; the second names what the tape has not proved. That is enough to keep BUY, not enough to invent urgency. No change. Nothing to do this week.
Standing caveat. The completed-cycle sample contains four observations. Historical distributions are context, not forecasts. Nothing here is a reason to change a scheduled contribution.
Read this before trusting any number above. Every input is checked for staleness before it is rendered, using the regime engine's own dropout cutoff. All inputs fresh this week.
The engine's label is RECOVERY, sourced held — no rule fired, so the previous state was retained. Its edge is at naming the present, not predicting it. Treat everything here as context for sizing and for killing stories, not as timing. Generated against the regime engine · value percentile is expanding-window, no look-ahead. The full method, every refuted strategy, and the evidence for this panel are in the engine atlas.