Bitcoin Weeklyビットコイン週報
No change.
Nothing to do this week.
One call at the top. The evidence under it. The judgement at the end.
Value is 32.3 and nothing is flashing danger — the band where deployment has been rewarded.
Scheduled contributions continue either way — that never changes. This is about a lump you already have.
Where value has been — 12 months価値の軌跡
Each day ranked against its own history; the current value percentile is 32.3. It peaked at 72.3 on 2025-10-06 and bottomed at 14.9 on 2026-06-29. Weekly points.
The model context模型
Descriptions of price, not targets.
The power law
expanding log-log fit · refit through 2026-09-15
−45.0%
Bitcoin at $76,463 is 45.0% below the long-run power-law line at $139,047. The line is an imaginary description of where price has been, not a target or a forecast. Its coefficients move as observations arrive.
1193 of 4276 modern-era days were cheaper relative to the line — the 27.9 percentile. This is cheap, but it is not historically extreme.
| cycle trough | vs line |
|---|---|
| 2015-01-14 | −76.3% |
| 2018-12-15 | −51.0% |
| 2020-03-12 | −58.3% |
| 2022-11-21 | −63.9% |
| 2026-06-30 | −56.0% |
| cycle peak | vs line |
|---|---|
| 2013-12-04 | +766.6% |
| 2017-12-16 | +566.1% |
| 2019-06-26 | +57.0% |
| 2021-11-08 | +134.2% |
| 2025-10-06 | +13.6% |
Every trough shown went deeper than today, while peak overshoots have contracted sharply. The history is the hedge against reading “45.0% below” as a promise.
The valuation ladder
spot $76,463 · rank 2 · 6 of 8 rungs above spot
| rung | value | spot vs |
|---|---|---|
| cointime priceharvested · derive to 1.41% | $52,755 | +44.9% |
| realised priceharvested · derive to 0.17% | $53,199 | +43.7% |
| true market meanharvested · derive to 0.25% | $76,610 | −0.2% |
| power lawours | $139,047 | −45.0% |
| vaulted priceharvested · derive to 0.98% | $145,205 | −47.3% |
| MVRV +1.0sdharvested · cannot verify | $152,941 | −50.0% |
| MVRV +1.5sdharvested · cannot verify | $179,196 | −57.3% |
| MVRV +2.0sdharvested · cannot verify | $205,451 | −62.8% |
Five of eight rungs are independently derivable: four harvested base-price models can be rebuilt to the stated tolerances, and the power law is ours. The three MVRV bands are copied from an external chart and cannot be independently verified. A ladder is context; no rung, including the upper bands, is a price objective.
Anything unusual?異常
- long-term holders are realising losses on average (SOPR 0.994)
Do anything?行動
- No boundary crossed this week.
An item appears here only when a level crosses a boundary, the engine changes state, the sell guard lights, or an input goes stale. Steady readings produce no items on purpose — a report that always finds something will eventually invent something.
The Panel計器盤
Three indicators, three different jobs.
MVRV
the picture, and the buy side
1.47
37.3 percentile ▼ 0.3
Cost basis of the average coin. Below 1.0 the average holder is underwater. This is the buy-side number; do not average it with anything.
Puell multiple
the danger side
1.013
45.9 percentile ▲ 7.7
Miner revenue against its own trend. The panel's danger marker is meaningful only when it reaches the upper band and the other instruments agree.
price ÷ 200-week avg
the confluence check
1.173
19.9 percentile ▼ 2.2
Price against its 200-week average. Third leg of the guard; only meaningful when it agrees with the other two.
Sell guard — CLEAR · 0 / 3
Nothing in its top fifth. The danger confluence is not lit. It lights only when all three panel members sit in their top fifth at once. That is a reason to stop adding and check sizing — never a sell trigger.
If you were deploying capital today資本
The distribution you are stepping into
days since 2018 with MVRV in the 27–47 percentile band · n=651
Historical distribution conditional on today's reading. Not a forecast. It says what this zone has looked like, not what happens next.
The rule that survived the tests. Keep buying on schedule regardless of this number, including when the panel is not cheap.
Use the panel to size a lump you already have — faster below 40, slower above 60 — and never to decide whether a scheduled contribution goes in.
Who is under stress売り手
What the week rules out.
| cohort | level | percentile |
|---|---|---|
| long-term holders | 0.994 | 28.1 |
| short-term holders | 1.005 | 72.5 |
| supply in profit | 0.658 | 42.1 |
SOPR below 1.0 means that cohort is realising losses on average. This is the one thing price cannot tell you: who is doing the selling. Use it to kill stories — if someone claims long-term holders are capitulating, this either shows it or it does not.
Week, month, quarter, year四つの地平
| span | BTC | value then | Δ value | Δ MVRV | Δ Puell |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| weeksince 2026-09-08 | −2.5% | 32.7 | −0.4 | −0.3 | +7.7 |
| monthsince 2026-08-16 | +21.7% | 16.2 | +16.0 | +17.5 | +12.0 |
| quartersince 2026-06-16 | +16.5% | 18.9 | +13.3 | +16.4 | +16.8 |
| YTDsince 2026-01-01 | −13.8% | 41.3 | −9.0 | −2.6 | +9.2 |
One week is noise. The same direction across four horizons is the difference between drifting and moving. Δ columns are percentile points.
Where we are in the cycle周期
This drawdown so far
Day 344 since the all-time high.
Completed cycles, for scale
peak to trough · the analogue set, all four of it
| cycle | duration | depth |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-06 → 2011-11 | 162d | −93% |
| 2013-12 → 2015-01 | 406d | −85% |
| 2017-12 → 2018-12 | 364d | −84% |
| 2021-11 → 2022-11 | 378d | −77% |
The Analyst Note所見
No change. Nothing to do this week.
Bitcoin is at $76,463, down 2.5% on the week. Value barely moved: −0.4 points, from 32.7 to 32.3, because the instruments did not move together. MVRV fell 0.3 points and price versus its 200-week average fell 2.2, while Puell rose 7.7. The regime engine remained in RECOVERY with a rule firing, and the sell guard remained CLEAR at 0 / 3. Nothing crossed a boundary. The BUY sizing posture therefore survives without producing a new instruction.
The useful change is who is taking the loss
Long-term-holder SOPR is 0.994, below one and at the 28.1 percentile: long-term holders are realising losses on average. Short-term-holder SOPR is 1.005 at the 72.5 percentile, a 44-point gap, while supply in profit remains 0.658 at the 42.1 percentile. That is a different ownership picture from a market in which every cohort is being forced out together.
The anomaly deserves attention, not promotion into a bottom call. The capitulation panel has 0 of 8 members lit against a threshold of six. A single cohort slipping below one can identify the seller; it cannot establish that selling is broad or exhausted.
Two of this page's reassurances are one reassurance
It is tempting to read the empty capitulation panel and the shallow drawdown as two independent reasons this market is not in distress. They are not independent. The drawdown reached −53.1% at its worst against a shallowest-completed-cycle depth of −77%, and a shallower drawdown mechanically produces less forced selling — which is the same fact the capitulation panel measures, restated. Counting it twice would manufacture a confidence neither reading earns alone. One observation, reported in two places.
The model spread measures disagreement, not upside
Spot is rank 2 on the valuation ladder, with 6 of 8 rungs above it. Yet the nearest rung, true market mean, is only 0.2% above spot while spot is 45.0% below the power-law line, and only 5 of the eight rungs are independently derivable. Those are not six independent votes. Relative to the power law, 1193 of 4276 modern-era days were cheaper — the 27.9 percentile. Cheap, and not historically extreme. The spread between models is a reason to resist target language, not a reason to manufacture urgency.
Sentiment is not evidence this week
The fear-and-greed index reads 69, down from 72. Treat it as price restated: across 1,174 days the trailing 30-day return alone explains 64% of this index, while the price level explains 1%. The only part not already on the chart above is the residual, and it is −1.6 points — −0.14 standard deviations. Sentiment sits exactly where price says it should. That is neither a contrarian signal nor a confirmation; it is the same information wearing a different label.
Where the marginal bid is not coming from
The largest corporate holder sits at 840,447 BTC, unchanged week on week and 6,916 coins (−0.8%) below its June peak. At an mNAV of 0.80 the market prices those coins 20% below spot, so any share issued to buy more is issued at a discount to what it buys. It has stopped selling and has not resumed buying, and the discount is the mechanism. That is a constraint on the bid, not a forecast of it.
Two branches, separated by breadth
Branch A — this is a transfer, not a cascade. Long-term holders are accepting losses while short-term holders remain above one, but neither the capitulation panel nor the sell guard shows breadth. The capitulation panel meeting its threshold or the guard ceasing to be clear invalidates this branch.
Branch B — the recovery label is ahead of confirmation. Value is still 9.0 points lower YTD, and the cycle clock has recorded 0 accumulation days and 0 capitulation days, having gone from decline to RECOVERY in 77 days. Read that carefully: accumulation windows in the four completed cycles ran from 0 to 194 days, so a zero is inside precedent rather than outside it, and it does not by itself say the low is unconfirmed. What it does say is that if this cycle skips the window one would normally accumulate into, capital has to be deployed faster than precedent suggests, not slower. The June low is known only in hindsight. Long-term-holder SOPR moving back above 1.0 while RECOVERY persists and capitulation remains 0 of 8 invalidates this branch.
The present breadth favors the first branch, but one week of cohort separation cannot settle it. The call is BUY because value is 32.3 and danger is clear — not because the low is proven. No change. Nothing to do this week.
Standing caveat. The completed-cycle sample contains four observations. Historical distributions are context, not forecasts. Nothing here is a reason to change a scheduled contribution.
Read this before trusting any number above. Every input is checked for staleness before it is rendered, using the regime engine's own dropout cutoff. All inputs fresh this week.
The engine's label is RECOVERY, sourced fired — a rule fired and retained the previous state. Its edge is at naming the present, not predicting it. Treat everything here as context for sizing and for killing stories, not as timing. Generated against the regime engine · value percentile is expanding-window, no look-ahead. The full method, every refuted strategy, and the evidence for this panel are in the engine atlas.