Bitcoin Weeklyビットコイン週報
No change.
Nothing to do this week.
One call at the top. The evidence under it. The judgement at the end.
Value is 39.0 and nothing is flashing danger — the band where deployment has been rewarded.
Scheduled contributions continue either way — that never changes. This is about a lump you already have.
Where value has been — 12 months価値の軌跡
Each day ranked against its own history; the current value percentile is 39.0. It peaked at 72.3 on 2025-10-06 and bottomed at 14.9 on 2026-06-29. Weekly points.
The model context模型
Descriptions of price, not targets.
The power law
expanding log-log fit · refit through 2026-09-22
−38.1%
Bitcoin at $86,418 is 38.1% below the long-run power-law line at $139,664. The line is an imaginary description of where price has been, not a target or a forecast. Its coefficients move as observations arrive.
1611 of 4283 modern-era days were cheaper relative to the line — the 37.6 percentile. This is cheap, but it is not historically extreme.
| cycle trough | vs line |
|---|---|
| 2015-01-14 | −76.3% |
| 2018-12-15 | −51.0% |
| 2020-03-12 | −58.3% |
| 2022-11-21 | −63.9% |
| 2026-06-30 | −56.0% |
| cycle peak | vs line |
|---|---|
| 2013-12-04 | +766.6% |
| 2017-12-16 | +566.1% |
| 2019-06-26 | +57.0% |
| 2021-11-08 | +134.2% |
| 2025-10-06 | +13.6% |
Every trough shown went deeper than today, while peak overshoots have contracted sharply. The history is the hedge against reading “38.1% below” as a promise.
The valuation ladder
spot $86,418 · rank 3 · 5 of 8 rungs above spot
| rung | value | spot vs |
|---|---|---|
| cointime priceharvested · derive to 1.41% | $52,797 | +63.7% |
| realised priceharvested · derive to 0.17% | $53,301 | +62.1% |
| true market meanharvested · derive to 0.25% | $76,779 | +12.6% |
| power lawours | $139,664 | −38.1% |
| vaulted priceharvested · derive to 0.98% | $145,395 | −40.6% |
| MVRV +1.0sdharvested · cannot verify | $153,183 | −43.6% |
| MVRV +1.5sdharvested · cannot verify | $179,475 | −51.8% |
| MVRV +2.0sdharvested · cannot verify | $205,767 | −58.0% |
Five of eight rungs are independently derivable: four harvested base-price models can be rebuilt to the stated tolerances, and the power law is ours. The three MVRV bands are copied from an external chart and cannot be independently verified. A ladder is context; no rung, including the upper bands, is a price objective.
Anything unusual?異常
- MVRV moved +11 percentile points in a week
- Puell multiple moved -10 percentile points in a week
Do anything?行動
- No boundary crossed this week.
An item appears here only when a level crosses a boundary, the engine changes state, the sell guard lights, or an input goes stale. Steady readings produce no items on purpose — a report that always finds something will eventually invent something.
The Panel計器盤
Three indicators, three different jobs.
MVRV
the picture, and the buy side
1.625
44.8 percentile ▲ 10.6
Cost basis of the average coin. Below 1.0 the average holder is underwater. This is the buy-side number; do not average it with anything.
Puell multiple
the danger side
0.894
38.4 percentile ▼ 10.3
Miner revenue against its own trend. The panel's danger marker is meaningful only when it reaches the upper band and the other instruments agree.
price ÷ 200-week avg
the confluence check
1.319
27.0 percentile ▲ 7.9
Price against its 200-week average. Third leg of the guard; only meaningful when it agrees with the other two.
Sell guard — CLEAR · 0 / 3
Nothing in its top fifth. The danger confluence is not lit. It lights only when all three panel members sit in their top fifth at once. That is a reason to stop adding and check sizing — never a sell trigger.
If you were deploying capital today資本
The distribution you are stepping into
days since 2018 with MVRV in the 35–55 percentile band · n=660
Historical distribution conditional on today's reading. Not a forecast. It says what this zone has looked like, not what happens next.
The rule that survived the tests. Keep buying on schedule regardless of this number, including when the panel is not cheap.
Use the panel to size a lump you already have — faster below 40, slower above 60 — and never to decide whether a scheduled contribution goes in.
Who is under stress売り手
What the week rules out.
| cohort | level | percentile |
|---|---|---|
| long-term holders | 1.034 | 30.1 |
| short-term holders | 1.017 | 92.0 |
| supply in profit | 0.741 | 55.3 |
SOPR below 1.0 means that cohort is realising losses on average. This is the one thing price cannot tell you: who is doing the selling. Use it to kill stories — if someone claims long-term holders are capitulating, this either shows it or it does not.
Week, month, quarter, year四つの地平
| span | BTC | value then | Δ value | Δ MVRV | Δ Puell |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| weeksince 2026-09-15 | +14.3% | 29.5 | +9.5 | +10.6 | −10.3 |
| monthsince 2026-08-23 | +11.2% | 32.7 | +6.3 | +7.4 | +0.7 |
| quartersince 2026-06-23 | +37.9% | 16.5 | +22.5 | +25.7 | +7.3 |
| YTDsince 2026-01-01 | −2.6% | 41.3 | −2.3 | +4.9 | +1.7 |
One week is noise. The same direction across four horizons is the difference between drifting and moving. Δ columns are percentile points.
Where we are in the cycle周期
This drawdown so far
Day 351 since the all-time high.
Completed cycles, for scale
peak to trough · the analogue set, all four of it
| cycle | duration | depth |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-06 → 2011-11 | 162d | −93% |
| 2013-12 → 2015-01 | 406d | −85% |
| 2017-12 → 2018-12 | 364d | −84% |
| 2021-11 → 2022-11 | 378d | −77% |
The Analyst Note所見
No change. Nothing to do this week.
Bitcoin is at $86,418, up 14.3% on the week. Value rose 9.5 points, from 29.5 to 39.0. The regime engine remained in RECOVERY with a rule firing, while the sell guard stayed CLEAR at 0 / 3. The BUY sizing posture survives, but the empty action list matters: a large price move is not itself a new instruction.
The rally did not move the instruments together
MVRV jumped 10.6 percentile points to 44.8, and price against its 200-week average rose 7.9 points to 27.0. Puell moved the other way, down 10.3 points to 38.4. The first two readings say price and holder cost basis repriced quickly; the miner-revenue reading did not confirm them. That disagreement is the week's useful information. It keeps a strong tape from masquerading as a broad regime change.
Profit-taking is concentrated in the newest hands
Short-term-holder SOPR is 1.017 at the 92.0 percentile. Long-term-holder SOPR is also above one, at 1.034, but only at the 30.1 percentile. Supply in profit sits at 0.741, the 55.3 percentile. The 62-point cohort gap says recent buyers are taking gains while the base is not distributing with the same intensity. That is selling pressure, but not yet broad stress: the capitulation panel has 0 of 7 evaluable members lit.
Enthusiasm is stretched before leverage is
Fear and Greed reads 79 against a price-implied 58. Its residual is +20.5 points, or +1.83 standard deviations, and moved from −4 to +21 in seven days. That is the one caution here which is not merely the price chart restated. Yet funding is only at the 64.4 percentile, and liquidations peaked at $368M, the 65th of 1389 days. Psychology ran ahead; the mechanical stress readings did not run with it.
The move spent cheapness; it did not erase it
Value is now 39.0, up on the week and month but still 2.3 points lower YTD. Spot ranks 3 on the valuation ladder, with 5 of 8 rungs above it, while 1611 of 4283 modern-era days were cheaper relative to the power-law line. None of those counts is a target. Together they say the rally narrowed the valuation margin without turning this into an expensive or euphoric panel.
Two branches, separated by absorption after the burst
Branch A — recovery absorbs the profit-taking. Recent buyers realise gains, the long-term cohort stays above one, and the panel remains non-confluent while RECOVERY holds. Short-term-holder SOPR falling below 1.0 together with the engine leaving RECOVERY invalidates this branch.
Branch B — enthusiasm borrowed from the next few weeks. A +1.83-standard-deviation sentiment residual and a 92.0-percentile short-term cohort describe a burst that can exhaust without ever lighting the sell guard. The sentiment residual returning inside one standard deviation while the guard remains CLEAR invalidates this branch.
The evidence does not yet choose cleanly between them: price is strong, participation is uneven, and mechanical stress is absent. The call remains BUY because value is 39.0 and danger is clear — not because a 14.3% week deserves pursuit. No change. Nothing to do this week.
Standing caveat. The completed-cycle sample contains four observations. Historical distributions are context, not forecasts. Nothing here is a reason to change a scheduled contribution.
Read this before trusting any number above. Every input is checked for staleness before it is rendered, using the regime engine's own dropout cutoff. All inputs fresh this week.
The engine's label is RECOVERY, sourced fired — a rule fired and retained the previous state. Its edge is at naming the present, not predicting it. Treat everything here as context for sizing and for killing stories, not as timing. Generated against the regime engine · value percentile is expanding-window, no look-ahead. The full method, every refuted strategy, and the evidence for this panel are in the engine atlas.