Bitcoin Weeklyビットコイン週報
No change.
Nothing to do this week.
One call at the top. The evidence under it. The judgement at the end.
Value is 34.0 and nothing is flashing danger — the band where deployment has been rewarded.
Scheduled contributions continue either way — that never changes. This is about a lump you already have.
Where value has been — 12 months価値の軌跡
Each day ranked against its own history; the current value percentile is 34.0. It peaked at 63.2 on 2025-10-27 and bottomed at 14.9 on 2026-06-29. Weekly points.
The model context模型
Descriptions of price, not targets.
The power law
expanding log-log fit · refit through 2026-10-20
−41.9%
Bitcoin at $82,539 is 41.9% below the long-run power-law line at $142,181. The line is an imaginary description of where price has been, not a target or a forecast. Its coefficients move as observations arrive.
1447 of 4311 modern-era days were cheaper relative to the line — the 33.6 percentile. This is cheap, but it is not historically extreme.
| cycle trough | vs line |
|---|---|
| 2015-01-14 | −76.3% |
| 2018-12-15 | −51.0% |
| 2020-03-12 | −58.3% |
| 2022-11-21 | −63.9% |
| 2026-06-30 | −56.0% |
| cycle peak | vs line |
|---|---|
| 2013-12-04 | +766.6% |
| 2017-12-16 | +566.1% |
| 2019-06-26 | +57.0% |
| 2021-11-08 | +134.2% |
| 2025-10-06 | +13.6% |
Every trough shown went deeper than today, while peak overshoots have contracted sharply. The history is the hedge against reading “41.9% below” as a promise.
The valuation ladder
spot $82,539 · rank 3 · 5 of 8 rungs above spot
| rung | value | spot vs |
|---|---|---|
| cointime priceharvested · derive to 1.41% | $53,547 | +54.1% |
| realised priceharvested · derive to 0.17% | $53,879 | +53.2% |
| true market meanharvested · derive to 0.25% | $77,544 | +6.4% |
| power lawours | $142,181 | −41.9% |
| vaulted priceharvested · derive to 0.98% | $147,184 | −43.9% |
| MVRV +1.0sdharvested · cannot verify | $154,646 | −46.6% |
| MVRV +1.5sdharvested · cannot verify | $181,167 | −54.4% |
| MVRV +2.0sdharvested · cannot verify | $207,688 | −60.3% |
Five of eight rungs are independently derivable: four harvested base-price models can be rebuilt to the stated tolerances, and the power law is ours. The three MVRV bands are copied from an external chart and cannot be independently verified. A ladder is context; no rung, including the upper bands, is a price objective.
Anything unusual?異常
- No unusual readings flagged this week.
Do anything?行動
- No boundary crossed this week.
An item appears here only when a level crosses a boundary, the engine changes state, the sell guard lights, or an input goes stale. Steady readings produce no items on purpose — a report that always finds something will eventually invent something.
The Panel計器盤
Three indicators, three different jobs.
MVRV
the picture, and the buy side
1.519
39.3 percentile ▼ 1.0
Cost basis of the average coin. Below 1.0 the average holder is underwater. This is the buy-side number; do not average it with anything.
Puell multiple
the danger side
1.122
52.7 percentile ▼ 5.8
Miner revenue against its own trend. The panel's danger marker is meaningful only when it reaches the upper band and the other instruments agree.
price ÷ 200-week avg
the confluence check
1.235
23.8 percentile ▼ was 24.4
Price against its 200-week average. Third leg of the guard; only meaningful when it agrees with the other two.
Sell guard — CLEAR · 0 / 3
Nothing in its top fifth. The danger confluence is not lit. It lights only when all three panel members sit in their top fifth at once. That is a reason to stop adding and check sizing — never a sell trigger.
If you were deploying capital today資本
The distribution you are stepping into
days since 2018 with MVRV in the 29–49 percentile band · n=614
Historical distribution conditional on today's reading. Not a forecast. It says what this zone has looked like, not what happens next.
The rule that survived the tests. Keep buying on schedule regardless of this number, including when the panel is not cheap.
Use the panel to size a lump you already have — faster below 40, slower above 60 — and never to decide whether a scheduled contribution goes in.
Who is under stress売り手
What the week rules out.
| cohort | level | percentile |
|---|---|---|
| long-term holders | 1.26 | 40.4 |
| short-term holders | 1.001 | 53.5 |
| supply in profit | 0.657 | 41.7 |
SOPR below 1.0 means that cohort is realising losses on average. This is the one thing price cannot tell you: who is doing the selling. Use it to kill stories — if someone claims long-term holders are capitulating, this either shows it or it does not.
Week, month, quarter, year四つの地平
| span | BTC | value then | Δ value | Δ MVRV | Δ Puell |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| weeksince 2026-10-13 | −0.7% | 35.1 | −1.1 | −1.0 | −5.8 |
| monthsince 2026-09-20 | +1.7% | 34.5 | −0.5 | −0.2 | +2.8 |
| quartersince 2026-07-21 | +24.1% | 20.4 | +13.6 | +16.1 | +30.3 |
| YTDsince 2026-01-01 | −7.0% | 41.3 | −7.3 | −0.6 | +16.0 |
One week is noise. The same direction across four horizons is the difference between drifting and moving. Δ columns are percentile points.
Where we are in the cycle周期
This drawdown so far
Day 379 since the all-time high.
Completed cycles, for scale
peak to trough · the analogue set, all four of it
| cycle | duration | depth |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-06 → 2011-11 | 162d | −93% |
| 2013-12 → 2015-01 | 406d | −85% |
| 2017-12 → 2018-12 | 364d | −84% |
| 2021-11 → 2022-11 | 378d | −77% |
The Analyst Note所見
No change. Nothing to do this week.
A buyer can keep accumulating while its financing becomes less comfortable. The largest corporate holder reports a new peak of 848,517 BTC as of 2026-10-18, yet its mNAV is 0.7488, against 0.8288 previously. Holdings describe purchases already made. The valuation of the shares bears on the terms available for the next purchase. My judgement is that continued buying supports the recovery case, but the record balance alone gives little assurance about the durability of that demand.
The financing constraint is conditional
An mNAV below asset value makes issuing common equity to buy bitcoin less attractive: shares would be sold at a discount to the assets they finance. That does not establish that buying must stop. This readout does not say which funding source paid for the latest purchases, or what cash, debt or other financing remains available. Calling the buyer exhausted would outrun the evidence; treating its record holdings as a promise of continued demand would do the same.
The distinction matters in a quiet market. Bitcoin is up 24.1% on the quarter, while the week is −0.7%. The 30-day average perp funding rate sits near the middle of its history, at the 46th percentile, and implied volatility is in its bottom fifth. Those readings leave an orderly recovery plausible. They do not measure who would replace a corporate buyer if its purchases slowed.
What would change that judgement
Branch A — demand remains financeable. Holdings continue rising and the share discount narrows, or purchases continue despite the discount. Either would weaken the near-term financing-constraint thesis, although holdings alone would still leave the funding source unresolved. An outright reduction in holdings alongside a persistent discount would invalidate the reading of this buyer as a continuing source of net demand.
Branch B — the discount begins to constrain buying. Holdings stall or fall while the discount persists, and the market loses that source of support. A stall would be consistent with this branch, not proof that financing caused it. Continued additions alongside a narrowing discount would undermine it. A break below the provisional cycle low of $58,525.05 would separately invalidate the premise that the recovery from that low remains intact.
The posture survives; the confirmation is thinner
The engine still says RECOVERY, but the label is held — no rule fired. That is less confirmation than a fresh entry-rule decision, and it gives no diagnosis of which input prevented one. The sizing call remains BUY: value is 34.0, and the sell guard is CLEAR at 0 / 3. A clear guard describes the absence of expensive-end confluence; it offers no protection against a loss of demand. There is no new action this week. The useful question for the next reading is whether purchases and financing terms keep moving apart.
Standing caveat. The completed-cycle sample contains four observations. Historical distributions are context, not forecasts. Nothing here is a reason to change a scheduled contribution.
Read this before trusting any number above. Every input is checked for staleness before it is rendered, using the regime engine's own dropout cutoff. No inputs were reported stale in this readout. Week comparisons use the historical values supplied with this reading.
The engine's label is RECOVERY, sourced held — no rule fired on 2026-10-20. A held label carries forward an earlier classification; it is not a fresh entry-rule confirmation. The label describes the present; it is not a forecast. Treat everything here as context for sizing and for killing stories, not as timing. Generated against the regime engine · value percentile is expanding-window, no look-ahead. The full method, every refuted strategy, and the evidence for this panel are in the engine atlas.