Bitcoin Weeklyビットコイン週報
The pullback is broader.
The call is unchanged.
One call at the top. The evidence under it. The judgement at the end.
Value is 32.1 and nothing is flashing danger — the band where deployment has been rewarded.
Scheduled contributions continue either way — that never changes. This is about a lump you already have.
Where value has been — 12 months価値の軌跡
Each day ranked against its own history; the current value percentile is 32.1. It peaked at 63.2 on 2025-10-27 and bottomed at 14.9 on 2026-06-29. Weekly points.
The model context模型
Descriptions of price, not targets.
The power law
expanding log-log fit · refit through 2026-10-27
−43.7%
Bitcoin at $80,448 is 43.7% below the long-run power-law line at $142,799. The line is an imaginary description of where price has been, not a target or a forecast. Its coefficients move as observations arrive.
1317 of 4318 modern-era days were cheaper relative to the line — the 30.5 percentile. This is cheap, but it is not historically extreme.
| cycle trough | vs line |
|---|---|
| 2015-01-14 | −76.3% |
| 2018-12-15 | −51.0% |
| 2020-03-12 | −58.3% |
| 2022-11-21 | −63.9% |
| 2026-06-30 | −56.0% |
| cycle peak | vs line |
|---|---|
| 2013-12-04 | +766.6% |
| 2017-12-16 | +566.1% |
| 2019-06-26 | +57.0% |
| 2021-11-08 | +134.2% |
| 2025-10-06 | +13.6% |
Every trough shown went deeper than today, while peak overshoots have contracted sharply. The history is the hedge against reading “43.7% below” as a promise.
The valuation ladder
spot $80,448 · rank 3 · 5 of 8 rungs above spot
| rung | value | spot vs |
|---|---|---|
| cointime priceharvested · derive to 1.41% | $53,758 | +49.6% |
| realised priceharvested · derive to 0.17% | $54,059 | +48.8% |
| true market meanharvested · derive to 0.25% | $77,784 | +3.4% |
| power lawours | $142,799 | −43.7% |
| vaulted priceharvested · derive to 0.98% | $147,760 | −45.6% |
| MVRV +1.0sdharvested · cannot verify | $155,113 | −48.1% |
| MVRV +1.5sdharvested · cannot verify | $181,709 | −55.7% |
| MVRV +2.0sdharvested · cannot verify | $208,305 | −61.4% |
Five of eight rungs are independently derivable: four harvested base-price models can be rebuilt to the stated tolerances, and the power law is ours. The three MVRV bands are copied from an external chart and cannot be independently verified. A ladder is context; no rung, including the upper bands, is a price objective.
Anything unusual?異常
- No unusual readings flagged this week.
Do anything?行動
- No boundary crossed this week.
An item appears here only when a level crosses a boundary, the engine changes state, the sell guard lights, or an input goes stale. Steady readings produce no items on purpose — a report that always finds something will eventually invent something.
The Panel計器盤
Three indicators, three different jobs.
MVRV
the picture, and the buy side
1.48
37.7 percentile ▼ 2.4
Cost basis of the average coin. Below 1.0 the average holder is underwater. This is the buy-side number; do not average it with anything.
Puell multiple
the danger side
1.162
55.6 percentile ▼ 4.2
Miner revenue against its own trend. The panel's danger marker is meaningful only when it reaches the upper band and the other instruments agree.
price ÷ 200-week avg
the confluence check
1.198
21.3 percentile ▼ was 24.1
Price against its 200-week average. Third leg of the guard; only meaningful when it agrees with the other two.
Sell guard — CLEAR · 0 / 3
Nothing in its top fifth. The danger confluence is not lit. It lights only when all three panel members sit in their top fifth at once. That is a reason to stop adding and check sizing — never a sell trigger.
If you were deploying capital today資本
The distribution you are stepping into
days since 2018 with MVRV in the 28–48 percentile band · n=644
Historical distribution conditional on today's reading. Not a forecast. It says what this zone has looked like, not what happens next.
The rule that survived the tests. Keep buying on schedule regardless of this number, including when the panel is not cheap.
Use the panel to size a lump you already have — faster below 40, slower above 60 — and never to decide whether a scheduled contribution goes in.
Who is under stress売り手
What the week rules out.
| cohort | level | percentile |
|---|---|---|
| long-term holders | 1.266 | 40.8 |
| short-term holders | 1.0 | 45.7 |
| supply in profit | 0.61 | 33.6 |
SOPR below 1.0 means that cohort is realising losses on average. This is the one thing price cannot tell you: who is doing the selling. Use it to kill stories — if someone claims long-term holders are capitulating, this either shows it or it does not.
Week, month, quarter, year四つの地平
| span | BTC | value then | Δ value | Δ MVRV | Δ Puell |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| weeksince 2026-10-20 | −3.0% | 34.8 | −2.7 | −2.4 | −4.2 |
| monthsince 2026-09-27 | −4.7% | 36.9 | −4.8 | −4.3 | +6.3 |
| quartersince 2026-07-28 | +26.0% | 17.3 | +14.8 | +17.2 | +39.0 |
| YTDsince 2026-01-01 | −9.3% | 41.3 | −9.2 | −2.2 | +18.9 |
One week is noise. The same direction across four horizons is the difference between drifting and moving. Δ columns are percentile points.
Where we are in the cycle周期
This drawdown so far
Day 386 since the all-time high.
Completed cycles, for scale
peak to trough · the analogue set, all four of it
| cycle | duration | depth |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-06 → 2011-11 | 162d | −93% |
| 2013-12 → 2015-01 | 406d | −85% |
| 2017-12 → 2018-12 | 364d | −84% |
| 2021-11 → 2022-11 | 378d | −77% |
The Analyst Note所見
The pullback is broader. The call is unchanged.
A falling price can improve the entry valuation while weakening the recovery case. Bitcoin is down 3.0% on the week and 4.7% on the month; value has fallen from 34.8 to 32.1 since the previous issue. The quarter still shows a 26.0% price gain, while the year is down 9.3%. My judgement is that the recovery is being tested, rather than freshly confirmed. The shorter horizons have weakened together, but they do not yet establish that the longer rebound has failed.
Break-even is where the next reading matters
Short-term holders' SOPR is 1.0: the coins they are spending are, on average, at break-even. Long-term holders remain in realised profit at 1.266. That is a useful distinction. The newer holders have little profit cushion on the coins being spent, but this snapshot does not show both cohorts realising losses. SOPR describes transactions; it cannot tell us how many unspent coins their owners would sell.
MVRV, Puell and the price-to-200-week-average percentile have all declined since the comparison reading. That makes the cheapening broad across the panel, but it does not give us independent votes for a bottom: these instruments share exposure to price. The capitulation panel reads 0 of 8 lit. There is no broad distress signal here to turn a more attractive valuation into a claim that selling has been exhausted.
The branches, and what would invalidate them
Branch A — the recovery absorbs the pullback. Short-term SOPR holds at or regains profitability, and the weekly and monthly price readings improve. That combination would weaken the case that pressure is spreading through holders. Persistent realised losses in both cohorts would undermine this branch; a break below $58,525.05 would invalidate the premise that the recovery's provisional 2026-06-30 low still holds.
Branch B — the pullback becomes broader selling stress. Short-term SOPR moves below break-even and remains there, while long-term SOPR also moves into losses. That would strengthen the stress reading even if value kept getting cheaper. A return to profitability in both cohorts alongside improving price horizons would undermine it. Neither branch is established by today's break-even reading.
A steady call carries no new instruction
BUY remains the sizing call at value 32.1, with the sell guard CLEAR at 0 / 3. The guard tests expensive-end confluence; it does not test whether a decline can continue. RECOVERY is held — no rule fired, so the label adds no fresh entry-rule confirmation. No actionable boundary was crossed this week. The evidence supports keeping the existing posture while leaving the recovery thesis open to failure.
Standing caveat. The completed-cycle sample contains four observations. Historical distributions are context, not forecasts. Nothing here is a reason to change a scheduled contribution.
Read this before trusting any number above. Every input is checked for staleness before it is rendered, using the regime engine's own dropout cutoff. No inputs were reported stale in this readout. Week comparisons use the historical values supplied with this reading.
The engine's label is RECOVERY, sourced held — no rule fired on 2026-10-27. A held label carries forward an earlier classification; it is not a fresh entry-rule confirmation. The label describes the present; it is not a forecast. Treat everything here as context for sizing and for killing stories, not as timing. Generated against the regime engine · value percentile is expanding-window, no look-ahead. The full method, every refuted strategy, and the evidence for this panel are in the engine atlas.